The question you’ve posed encapsulates a current range of issues of great concern regarding China and your assessmet includes my own apprehensions at the direction and widening role China seeks in the Asia-Pacific region, strategically and diplomatically. Your assessment does not augur well for good relations. I agree, there is much the US should be doing to shape and nurture an environment for a peaceful and prosperous relationship.

The magnitude of change in China remains breathtaking and with the economy booming China continues to emerge as a world economic powerhouse and I cannot but agree that China’s growth is set to continue. There is no doubt that China’s economic awakening continues to challenge old patterns and it is probable that over time a greater China may emerge that will rival Japan for economic supremacy in Asia.

In the political sphere, it might be necessary to reassess Tiannamen, to strengthen the rule of law, to implement the separation of the party from the administrative and economic spheres, to free the private lives of China’s citizens from excessive state and security controls, to provide for unemployment and retirement funds and to strengthen the function of incidental control to be exercised by the country’s media. At the same time, the relationship between a stagnating centre and to increasingly dynamic growth regions in the country’s provinces, the poor performance of state owned industry, the insufficient productivity increases in China’s agriculture, as well as the necessity to open the country’s market for foreign products and to deregulate its financial markets while preserving a stable banking system will form key economic issues. In foreign policy, a balanced relationship between the USA, Russian, Japan and Western Europe must be found. Furthermore regional issues such as the transformation of North Korea into a more acceptable international partner, the return of Hong Kong to China in 1997, the reapproachment to Taiwan the relationship with Vietnam and the SE Asia, as well as the conflict over the Sprately Islands will have to be dealt with in a way that takes into account the anxieties of China’s neighbours.

An escalation of more violent forms of conflict cannot be ruled out (especially in Hong Kong) and particularly in cases of abrupt policy changes by individual leaders, the culturally inherent respect of strategy and related restraint and disregard for the use of crude power are perceived to form strong stabilising elements. Occasional protests (such as Tiannamen) strikes and smaller revolts are anticipated. They are however not deemed strong enough to cause a derailment of a continuous process of economic opening with a strong though retarded impact on the socio-political superstructure that will increasingly absorb elements of an autocratic society that marks a qualitative improvement over the totalitarian structures currently prevailing.

We have a tendency to equate things in terms of what we understand so we equate the motives and actions of the Chinese in terms of Western thinking. But there is a major difference in not only the way we think but in our forms of Government. Western Governments are responsive to human desires whereas the dominant concept ruled by Committee based on the precepts of communism is not responsible to the populace, only to themselves and one central ideal. Faces and names change but the ideal goes on. There have been policy shifts which we’ve tried to analyse in terms of Western thinking but these policy shifts are really still within the basic framework. The Chinese, like many in Asia, have never known democracy and they may not want our type of democracy. They are determined to work out their own destiny without interference from us.

I believe the Chinese do see themselves united under one flag. They want to hold and to develop their own vast homeland. They also see themselves as the core of a new and better world order by keeping things on an even keel.

What of a new strong China is she going to be the new disturber of the peace, will China attempt to infiltrate other countries with her economic and social philosophy? Obviously, it is difficult to answer such questions. This much however I do know - they are conscious now of their own potential strength and that such a force, such a power, such a people cannot be ignored. They will be a force to be dealt with and we cannot afford to be complacent - we should continually review their true ambitions and capabilities and their growing aspirations. We need to learn all we can about them as they will need to learn about us. There will be a lot of tough problems ahead. We should aim for co-operative effort for peace and economic security. We cannot afford to perform in terms of old power politics. There will be no peace, no economic stability unless we work together with China.