From New York and Washington, to Bali and Mombasa and Riyadh and, now Casablanca. It seems likely that probably all, and certainly most, of the recent suicide-homicide attacks on civilian targets are linked to Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda network.

In her study of al-Qaeda titled The Base (Simon & Schuster, 2002), British journalist Jane Corbin quotes bin Laden as having declared in 1998: "Our duty is to arouse the Muslim nation for jihad against the United States, Israel and their supporters, for the sake of God."

No doubt that is how he sees his particular calling. It's just that the past four suicide-homicide attacks have taken place in Indonesia, Kenya, Saudi Arabia and Morocco. On each occasion, many more local inhabitants were murdered than the combined total of Americans and Israelis.

The evidence suggests that the decision by US authorities to clamp down on terrorism after the events of September 11 has led to a situation where terrorists have decided to choose softer, non-American, targets. Both decisions are rational.

Al-Qaeda's apparent change of tactics has been an unintended consequence. Now bin Laden targets not only Westerners, but non-Westerners; not only Christians and Jews, but Muslims and Buddhists, and more besides. This provides some opportunities for the counter-terrorist cause.

Before the Bali murders, the US had been highly critical of what it regarded as the Indonesian Government's slack attitude to terrorism. Not any more. Last February, the US ambassador in Jakarta, Ralph Boyce, commented that progress on "every one" of America's anti-terrorist benchmarks had been "extraordinary" since the murders of October 12 last year. This change of attitude is recognised in the US State Department publication Patterns of Global Terrorism 2002, released last month.

Co-operation between Indonesia and Australia has been excellent since the Bali bombings. President Megawati's government has overseen the arrest and prosecution of at least some of the alleged killers and the matter has proceeded quickly to trial.

In addition, the previous attitude of denial has dissipated. Last week I Made Mangku Pastika, the police chief of Bali, said publicly that up to 30 terrorists who had trained at al-Qaeda camps in Afghanistan remain undetected in Indonesia.

Certainly terrorism remains a serious problem in Indonesia. But the Indonesian authorities have moved decisively against those accused of the Bali bombings. What's more, individuals thought to be associated with the radical Islamist group Jemaah Islamiah are being tracked down and Abu Bakar Bashir, JI's spiritual leader, has been charged with treason concerning alleged crimes not associated with the Bali murders. It is difficult to imagine that such an action would have been taken if the tragic events of October 12 had not occurred.

It remains to be seen whether Saudi Arabia will experience a similar awakening after last week's attacks in Riyadh. To some extent, Saudi Arabia is al-Qaeda's base. Bin Laden was born there, as were most of those involved in the September 11 attacks on the US. Officially, the Saudi royal family are allies of the US. Unofficially, Saudi Arabia's dictatorial rulers have allowed bin Laden's followers to operate in the country and to be essentially financed by fellow Saudis.

This may, just may, change following the Riyadh murders. In Washington last Friday, Adel Jubeir (chief foreign policy adviser to Crown Prince Abdullah) conceded that the terrorist attacks were a "massive jolt" that had already led to a substantial reassessment of Saudi security. He added: "We will do whatever we need to do, unilaterally or with the support of our friends, to ensure this does not happen again."

Maybe. It's just that, up to now, the Saudi regime has effectively tolerated terrorism. This has posed particular problems for the US since Saudi Arabia is, formally, a US ally. American political analyst Michael Ledeen sets out the problem in his book The War Against the Terror Masters (St Martin's Press, 2002). He describes Saudi Arabia as a "country that is simultaneously our major oil supplier and the main financier of our terrorist enemies".

Now it's possible, just possible, that the regime in Riyadh will come to realise that even tolerating al-Qaeda's existence on Saudi soil will have deleterious consequences. Followers of game theory, and others besides, will not have been surprised that al-Qaeda and similar organisations appear to have changed tactics after September 11.

The immediate targets are no longer the World Trade Centre or the Pentagon but, rather, Western residential compounds, hotels and religious entities. It is likely that further attacks will follow, possibly including some within Western societies.

Yet progress has been made since September 11. The war against the Taliban and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan - in which Australian special forces played an important role, most notably in the battle of Anaconda - has been successful in that it has denied bin Laden's forces a base to train and launch operations. This is likely to diminish the capability of al-Qaeda and its followers to launch big hits against high-profile targets.

What's more, due particularly to Pakistan's decision to support the West in the war against terrorism, a number of important arrests have been made, most notably that of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed in Rawalpinda last March. He was the third in the al-Qaeda hierarchy and is believed to have been the military planner of the September 11 attacks.

Then there is the change of attitude in Indonesia, which is of particular benefit to Australia and other nations in the Asia-Pacific region.

However, small successes aside, the war against terrorism is likely to be a long one, possibly one of the longest in history. This is the first conflict in which civilians have been a prime target. So - in this sense at least - it is a total war. And, as the recent tragedies reveal, all men and women of all faiths and nationalities are potential targets.