"What I found interesting is to be reminded of the use of
propaganda in war. All the discussion we have heard coming out
of Washington and then in the media focused on beginnings with
night attacks and massive bombing campaigns, extraordinary
amounts of ordnance in a short period of time in what they call
the 'shock and awe' approach. What that tells us is how
vulnerable we are to manipulation.
"It's a good reminder to look carefully at what comes out of
Washington and the war theatre. These people leak things like
mad, and there is a reason that they are leaking. It's all
manipulation and sleight of hand."

BARTHELEMY COURMONT, FRENCH INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL AND
STRATEGIC RELATIONS
"It looks to be highly, highly targeted and that fits in
with expectations. The last thing the United States wanted for
its public opinion were pictures of civilians in difficult
situations.
"I think this first phase could go on for a few days --
perhaps a week. Then, you have got two scenarios: the first is
that it will have borne fruit and then this war will have been
the fastest and easiest in military history; the second, which
is highly probable, is that it doesn't fully work.
"In that case, you have to go into phase two, which will
either be the campaign of massive bombing or the start of the
ground offensive, which would be accompanied by very real
uncertainties."

PAVEL FELGENHAUER, INDEPENDENT RUSSIAN MILITARY ANALYST
"There's not much time to lose as the weather becomes
increasingly unfit for active warfare. They will try to end the
active part -- breaking up of organised resistance, disarming of
the remnants of Saddam's forces, destroying the centralised
command and destroying the regime as an organised force -- by
the beginning of April.
"That depends on how strong Iraq forces are and how quickly
they begin to disintegrate. Much depends on whether the Iraqi
forces dig in the heels, on the attitude of the soldiers. The
length of the operation is hard to predict but it should be
short. Resistance could be several days, a week or two.
"Russia military intelligence are foreseeing a war of a no
more than a month.... The Americans have far superior weapons.
They can fight at night. They can fight in bad weather. They
will use the advantage of darkness as much as possible.
"I expect Saddam to flee -- most likely to Iran. The
Iranians do not like Saddam but they hate the Americans more."

MAJOR-GENERAL (RET) AMOS MALKA, FORMER CHIEF OF ISRAELI
MILITARY INTELLIGENCE
"I estimate they hit leadership and communications targets.
There was a certain deceptive element in the timing of the
opening of the offensive that was somewhat reminiscent of the
impressive American capability to mislead in (the) 1991 (Gulf
War)."

HUGH WHITE, DIRECTOR, AUSTRALIAN STRATEGIC POLICY INSTITUTE
"This may have simply been an opportunistic strike at a
target that presented itself, which seems to be the way that
it's being described by the Washington sources that are now
running, but I think it's much too early to make any conclusions
about the shape of the campaign. I'll give that 24 hours or at
least 12 anyway.
"...I don't think this is, if you like, an opening of the
campaign. They describe it as an opportunistic strike, and if
that is correct then I think this is not so much the opening of
a campaign as a little sort of pre-dinner hors d'oeuvre."

SIR PATRICK CORDINGLEY, WHO COMMANDED BRITAIN'S FRONT LINE
DESERT RATS IN THE 1991 GULF WAR
"I would have expected about 24 hours of aerial bombardment
before an attack went in. The whole point of war is surprise and
taking people unawares."

FRANCOIS GERE, PARIS-BASED DIPLOMACY AND DEFENCE INSTITUTE
"It seems to have been a targeted attack, not necessarily on
Saddam Hussein but perhaps on a meeting of his central command
-- the United States has considerable ability to intercept
communications and electronic signals to spot events such as
that.
"This is not surprising -- the idea was always that there
were going to be more selective strikes than in the (1991) Gulf
War. This could go on for a couple of days before any massive
aerial bombing begins....
"I don't expect any ground offensive at this stage -- the
Americans like to clear the way for their soldiers with aerial
bombing first."

WING COMMANDER ANDREW BROOKES, UK'S INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE
FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES
"It's going to be a precise campaign, that's the whole
theory of it. The aim is not to kill millions of Iraqis, but be
precise. That's what you see at the moment, the party
headquarters, the leadership being targeted, not the people.
"I expect more of the same in the next few hours.
"I would expect the ground forces very shortly. There's no
point in keeping a quarter of a million people on their
backsides. You want to get them in.
"This is no surprise for Saddam. It was obvious to anybody.
His 48 hours were up."

KLAUS REINHARDT, GERMAN FORMER KFOR COMMANDER:
"I considered that the military operation would be launched
straight away. There's no reason for the Americans to hold back
after the deadline runs out.
"I assume too that it will be full power from the start in a
combination of cruise missiles and air strikes. Very soon we are
likely to see a parallel introduction of special forces and air
assault brigades, including in the north. The mass of troops
could start as soon as today or early tomorrow.
"I think the bulk of the operation could last as little 10
to 14 days as the shock effect could be so strong."

DEREK WOOLNER, DIRECTOR DEFENCE ANALYSIS PROGRAMME,
AUSTRALIAN DEFENCE STUDIES CENTRE
"(The quick start) doesn't surprise me. They've got all
those forces in the dispersal area in Kuwait and you don't want
them all hanging around there, it's too much of an invitation to
Saddam Hussein to try his (chemical and biological weapons) on
them and see what happens....
"The Americans are confident of the accuracy and lethality
of the new generation of weapons and they think that this time
they'll be able to knock out the command and control,
communications systems of the Iraqis within little more than a
day but there's no need for days and days of bombardment.