The question you’ve posed encapsulates a current range of issues of great concern regarding China and your assessmet includes my own apprehensions at the direction and widening role China seeks in the Asia-Pacific region, strategically and diplomatically. Your assessment does not augur well for good relations. I agree, there is much the US should be doing to shape and nurture an environment for a peaceful and prosperous relationship.

The magnitude of change in China remains breathtaking and with the economy booming China continues to emerge as a world economic powerhouse and I cannot but agree that China’s growth is set to continue. There is no doubt that China’s economic awakening continues to challenge old patterns and it is probable that over time a greater China may emerge that will rival Japan for economic supremacy in Asia.

In the political sphere, it might be necessary to reassess Tiannamen, to strengthen the rule of law, to implement the separation of the party from the administrative and economic spheres, to free the private lives of China’s citizens from excessive state and security controls, to provide for unemployment and retirement funds and to strengthen the function of incidental control to be exercised by the country’s media. At the same time, the relationship between a stagnating centre and to increasingly dynamic growth regions in the country’s provinces, the poor performance of state owned industry, the insufficient productivity increases in China’s agriculture, as well as the necessity to open the country’s market for foreign products and to deregulate its financial markets while preserving a stable banking system will form key economic issues. In foreign policy, a balanced relationship between the USA, Russian, Japan and Western Europe must be found. Furthermore regional issues such as the transformation of North Korea into a more acceptable international partner, the return of Hong Kong to China in 1997, the reapproachment to Taiwan the relationship with Vietnam and the SE Asia, as well as the conflict over the Sprately Islands will have to be dealt with in a way that takes into account the anxieties of China’s neighbours.

An escalation of more violent forms of conflict cannot be ruled out (especially in Hong Kong) and particularly in cases of abrupt policy changes by individual leaders, the culturally inherent respect of strategy and related restraint and disregard for the use of crude power are perceived to form strong stabilising elements. Occasional protests (such as Tiannamen) strikes and smaller revolts are anticipated. They are however not deemed strong enough to cause a derailment of a continuous process of economic opening with a strong though retarded impact on the socio-political superstructure that will increasingly absorb elements of an autocratic society that marks a qualitative improvement over the totalitarian structures currently prevailing.