The U.S. has had a steadfast commitment to South Korea’s security and well-being; building and maintaining security arrangements that assure the stability of this volatile region, the proliferation of nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them poses a significant challenge to the ability of the United States.

North Korea has aggressively sought to increase its nuclear technology and missile capabilitiy which in itself constitutes a pressing threat to regional stability. Not only has North Korea been committed to acquiring nuclear weapons either through indigenous development or by covertly acquiring enough fissile material to produce them but they may have also initiated biological and chemical warfare programs. It is now possible that North Korea may have developed up to three or four nuclear weapons as well as a biological and chemical capabilty.

(Why has North Korea made the announcement now? How did they, an extremely poor regime get the funds for the development of this programme? Is it possible that they have sold/exchanged fissible material to other regimes? And if so, has this material made its way to the Middle East? Barring Iraq, is it now possible that Syria and Iran are further forward in their nuclear programmes than we believe? Are these thoughts dark and intricate imaginings of an apprehensive mind?)

In the short term, the threat of conventional war against the South remains and in the long term, the entire security of the Far East is at risk if North Korea has obtained a nuclear capability because other nations in the region such as South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, etc., will look towards their own nuclear deterrence capability which will directly impinge on the security in the region.

The North Korean's have consistently portrayed the American's as being evil and they themselves as being brave patriots. They are emotional and manipulative. They play on anti-American sentiments and propagate these sentiments successfully. Such words are taken as being the truth by the North Korean population. Internally, they are winning this propaganda war. If sanctions are instituted against North Korea because of their nuclear, chemical and biological programmes (and this may be entirely dependent on the Chinese attitude) we can expect to hear some inflammatory speeches. Will such sanctions provide an adequate safeguard against renewed North Korean aggression or will it force North Korea's hand?

There have been some unusual exchanges of rhetoric between the US and North Korea in recent years. America's last approach resulted in a brush-off and North Korea's dislike of America's insistence has been so pointed and undisguised that I begin to wonder if anything can be achieved. It is a moment of delicate balance. This is not a situation that you can solve without risk. Certainly, there will be considerable risk if North Korea has achieved nuclear capability. I’ve suspected North Korea of duplicity on a number of occasions and have been suspect that they have they been playing America along until they developed their capability.

I've gone over the details and weighed the pros and cons and the risk and chances. The situation South Korea faces remains difficult. The very hope of survival in South Korea rests on the assumption that South Korea will not be alone in the event of an outbreak of hostilities since behind South Korea stands the immense military power of the US. All their most exhaustive contingency planning has been done on that basis. North Korea knows all this. The US knows that North Korea will not risk throwing everything at South Korea. North Korea knows that the US will not hesitate to come to South Korea's aid. It is barely credible that North Korea will risk their own annihilation.

If North Korea suspects some impending action then this may tilt the balance and they could throw everything at South Korea. The Americans would only need to strike once against North Korea to annihilate North Korea entirely. A North Korean strike against South Korea would probably be mortal to North Korea. It would be similar to a string of a bee which dies through its own stinging such a situation may sound far-fetched but it coulod now become more of a possibility and fallout would affect the South East Asian region.