It may be a lengthy process to ferret out the true culprits of the terrorism in Bali. What is frightening is the professionalism with which it has been carried out.

It’s been widely believed that terrorists can be beaten by conventional means albeit of a sophisticated variety. Have they now gone one step further? The evidence is compelling. They’ve become increasingly experienced and prepared. The attack wasn’t random - it was the work of a highly organised group. Is this a start of a grand strategy and perhaps a part of a larger scenario within the Asian region? Is this an opening salvo or another pinprick around a periphery of a storm? What is the key to the strategy if one exists? Is it a crude attempt at provocation or retaliation?

There has been some unusual activity recently in the ME but is it connected? The atmosphere has become paranoid, almost psychopathic and we have a tendency to be indiscriminate when focusing our attention. The American’s are being extremely circumspect, are particularly concerned and continue to remain highly tense. There is a lot of uncertainty. There are so many questions, which remain unanswered. Local investigations have been initiated to attempt to identify the individuals concerned. At the moment the they are concentrating on links to Al Queda as well as internal homogeneous groups.

If it is a home-grown act of terrorism how will the Indonesians deal with it? There’s no doubt that there are some serious internal problems arising from within Indonesia itself, yet such a bombing could easily be the work of an outside terrorist group. There are so many tracks to follow. There’s nothing except a still-huge mass of contradictions, neurosis and fear. I sense confusion and conflict. It remains a matter of considerable concern and the atmosphere is tense. Fear isn’t very far away and like the wings of a new butterfly, passions are spreading out, stiffening into a hard resolve. The situation is very disturbing. Each day brings a new set of problems and a greater puzzle to be solved. Every effort is being made to quickly and fully determine the matter and to determine culpability. They are fitting the pieces together into a composite which may help to explain what happened but it will require not only time but also a great deal of study and reflection to sort out. What horrors will be revealed and what will remain hidden?

I don’t envy those, who will be asking the same questions and who are hoping to find the answers which will not easily be resolved. With all our sophisticated technology, satellites and listening devices worldwide we seem to lack knowledge. On the outside, looking in, it doesn’t look good whatever way you look at it and given the circumstances one has a tendency to lean towards an an outside hand in the event. I sense a certain unpleasantness surrounding the event and lurid images flicker in my head. A haunting melody, full of strange harmonies, erratic rhythms and discordant notes making me feel unsettled and uneasy.

The above is my own impression; everything is deduction and may be extremely probable, but is not certain. Tangled plots and endless conspiracies, leading to the inevitable question of who is using whom? I'm beginning to see connections, links, patterns everywhere. Have I become trapped in the centre of the web - my imagination? It is possible that local Islamic extremists may have advanced the plot on their own, but I urge caution in this respect. It is my belief that it has come from some other direction. It is a Machiavellian business, a warfare in the darkness with few clues to distinguish friend from foe.

Finding out who is behind it and how it connects to the threat received by American intelligence is a tall, but not impossible order. You see something you are intended to see and then, while you are congratulating yourself on your shrewdness, the second trick, the real sting goes right by you. No one knows what Islamic militant groups such as Al Queda are plotting they are enigmatic as a cat's eye. What may be obvious now is what we are intended to see. There is a nagging suspicion in the back of my mind that an illusion may have been created. The sun, half hidden by blushing clouds, shadows.

Islamic extremists are like a hydra, you cut off one of its heads and more pop out from nowhere. There are no membership lists, no cards they carry. I find it difficult to understand the lengths they go to propagate their brand of violence and hatred. I doubt whether we have touched the core of the problem, like the Indonesians so many countries have failed to resolve economic, social problems and endemic corruption which remains rife in many countries throughout the Middle East and Asia. It provides a fertile breeding ground for extremism and fundamentalism. Such groups exploit the situation to their benefit. It's not an isolated phenomena anymore. It's spreading like a virus. They'll carry the revolution with them in an unbridgeable schism.