Further to your note – unfortunately this sort of problem will crop up on an increasingly regular basis. What you’ve written is an intriguing assessment. I’m sure they will take a pretty sharp approach to it as you’ve been fairly outspoken on the matter. Personally, I doubt whether your literary efforts will be appreciated. As to your other point – you’d have to be circumspect because once the announcement was made it could be seen as a deliberate leak.

Such forecasts are as reliable as reading tea leaves or tarot. Different analysts have markedly different perspectives. The US has been on a high state of alert and they are taking it very seriously indeed. I am not so sure how you acclimatise the public to such a reality.

The future is a perverse topic that catches us out more times than it proves us right. But that’s no reason to resile from having to think about it, then act upon it. They are not picking a fight with Iraq. Nobody is giving up on the option of reaching a peaceful solution but how long do you give them? It would be suicidal to do nothing. Militarily they are preparing to use force and however unpalatable it may be they are preparing for it. As to your comment, France has its own dark little secrets, and their own hidden agenda which explains their reluctance.

The need to address the future is upon us all, as old themes intensify and new challenges come out of nowhere. I agree, it makes good sense to prepare for whatever happens. Since 9/11 the landscape has been reshaped and uncertainty increased. We now live in a time of rapid discontinuous change that is characterised by uncertainty, complexity, paradox and instability. Certainly I feel a general sense of unease, that all is not as it should be and that there is something out there, somewhere, something so appalling that many will suffer. Can it be stopped? I’m not sure, but the one thing I do know is that it exists and that those you’ve mentioned will not hesitate to go beyond the normal boundaries of morality - this reason alone leaves us little choice.

It's a sad fact of life that every home in Australia has received a copy of a booklet entitled 'Let's look out for Australia: Protecting our way of life from a possible terrorist threat'. The booklet provides advice about how we can work together to protect our way of life from the threat of terrorism. It is part of the Commonwealth' Government's commitment to keeping every Australian informed about:

- New counter-terrorist measures that have been put in place;
- How we can all play out part by being alert, but not alarmed
- Who to contact to report suspicious activity;
- What to do in the event of an emergency

Let's look out for Australia: Protecting our way of life from a possible terrorist threat, is part of a $15 million advertising campaign to raise consciousness about terrorism. In the booklet, with cover pictures including a group of children, Australians are reassured that emergency services have detailed plans in place and antibiotics and other drugs are stockpiled. It also informs as to what to do in an emergency ie if a bomb explodes, if you receive a suspicious package, if you are caught in a fire and if a chemical, biological or radiological incident occurs!

As our Prime Minster, John Howard states in his letter 'Australians have every reason to be hopeful and optimistic about the future. We are a strong, free, compassionate society - together, we will look out for Australia and protect the way of life we value so highly' a comment I agree with but one wonders where the world is heading when such a booklet is issued.

You’ve posed the question ‘do the American’s manipulate the world for their own interests?’ Yes, at their worst they are venal, duplicitous and self-serving and I have to admit that I retain a healthy scepticism concerning their current motives. Yet, I also believe we cannot afford to let such regimes go unchallenged nor can we allow such arms to proliferate. Something has to be done. But, it is clear that the US will be one of the major beneficiaries in the region. It will enable Washington to obtain a strategic opening, create a buffer zone and reinforce its partnership with conservative states. Considering the years of massive reconstruction, Iraq will require substantial Western investment and support; one has to admit they will be well-poised to meet future events. In assessing the strategy from the perspective of US interests the outcome, on balance, will be positive and will provide the US with further opportunities to expand and further legitimise its regional role.

The US has reason to be deeply concerned. Reading the translated transcript of Osama bin Laden’s message broadcast yesterday I felt an odd sensation as if something was emerging from the words. There is no doubt in my mind that the words were written by the hand of a Cleric. The transcript carries underlying messages - messages that should concern the US and its allies. The specific words of great concern, if translated correctly from news reports, are “hot conditions” which could be a threat of radioactivity. But, I ask myself are these particular words used to manipulate people's dread of random destruction and to increase the level of fear?

I believe a credible chemical and nuclear threat exists. My concern is that they have the means to not only detonate a dirty bomb but chemical weapons from assembled caches that remain hidden. At present, this is the most frightening aspect of the situation. There is also a peculiar alliance surfacing from under the words of the transcript. Is it a hidden alliance of convenience or something more? The ramifications of what I’ve seen pull together so many threads that its influence will spread far and wide - it's all part of a pattern.

Chemical, Biological and nuclear weapons are our worse nightmare and understandably Governments and the public are concerned about such weapons being available and being in the hands of terrorists. Once in a while something happens that shakes everyone's confidence. Newspaper reports have been a mix of gossip, speculation and hard intelligence. It would seem from news reports today that a high level alert exists and the threat is being taken very seriously. News reports also contained only a part of the truth of what has and is occurring. Something is being hidden or remains shadowed. I understand the need for secrecy. There are something's that you cannot share with the public and such things have to remain hidden. Wide ranging enquiries stretch outwards and intelligence chatters over secure data lines world-wide. The investigation itself is a matter of focus, of finding something tiny, something simple. Listening posts world- wide are searching intercepts and databases for clues, seeking key words in the hundreds of intercepts as they go through data re-runs. I am not sure if they will find what they are seeking as those responsible use other means.

I've taken a careful look at the bits of the jigsaw but it is difficult to pull together. I have too many questions to which I cannot find answers because of missing fragments. There is no doubt in my mind that they are as ruthless as hell. They intend to target the public. They want a massive and dramatic effect. There is no doubt that the broadcast is a threat and is a part of a strategy, a warning, that they intend to escalate the terror. They want to kill. It's frightening to think that they now have the means and they are not afraid to use it. Such a scenario seems horrific but very plausible. A small detonation could kill thousands of people. From what is emerging from the underlying words I am utterly convinced that it is true.

My bleak scenario sounds far-fetched when I re-read my notes. But now, I am not so certain. Al Qa’ida have made no secret of the fact of their ambitions. If they follow through with their plan, and I have no reason to doubt their threats, we can expect to see further outbreaks of violence throughout the Middle East, which may spread into other Islamic countries. They are still able to conduct their affairs without the world being able to detect the shadows. They know they are being watched and they have become even more careful. Their activities are concealed in small independent cells which are difficult to infiltrate and which operate independently. Al Qa’ida is very careful in its concealment with its involvement with certain organisations and through these organisations they continue to exploit Islamic communities world-wide. They continue to forge an extensive network of contacts.

The words themselves show the drama, the conflict, the hatred and the love - the tears, the cowardice, the bravery and the passion. They are a warning of Al Qa’ida intentions. I don't doubt that they hold some psychological and prophetic significance. What I’ve sensed is an autonomously created reality. What has surfaced from within the words has rhyme and reason. No account can truly capture their essence, the ominousness with which these words are charged and the contradictory directions they move in.

Translation of Osama bin Laden's message
The Australian dated 13th February 2003

In the name of Allah, the Merciful, the Beneficent: A Message to our Muslim brothers in Iraq. Alsalam Alikom Wa Rahmat Allah wa Barakato. (Koran verse) Oh Believers, be pious to God, and never die but when you are believers in Islam.

We are following with utmost concern the Crusaders' preparations to occupy the former capital of Islam (Baghdad), loot the fortunes of the Muslims and install a puppet regime on you that follows its masters in Washington and Tel Aviv like the rest of the treacherous puppet Arab governments as a prelude to the formation of Greater Israel.

We need to reassure – while we are close to the unjust war, the war of the bawds, America is leading with its allies and agents – on a number of important lessons:

First, to be honest in intention that the fighting would be for the sake of God, not to triumph for nationalism or pagan regimes in all the Arab countries, including Iraq. God said in his book, "Those who are the believers fight for the sake of God. Those who are infidels fight for the sake of the juggernaut. Fight the followers of the devil. The devil's cause is weak".

Second, remember that victory comes only from God. We have to exert all efforts with preparations, stimulation and jihad. God said, "O believers, if you fight for the sake of God, God will grant you victory and make your standing firm".

Therefore, you are obligated to hurry up to ask for God's forgiveness from all sins, especially the great ones. The Prophet said: "Avoid falling in the seven great sins, which are: believing in any but God, magic, murder, usury, stealing orphans' money, fleeing from battle, slandering believing women . . . besides, drinking alcohol, adultery, not obeying the parents and false testimony". You should be obedient in general.

Third, we recognised after fighting and defending ourselves from the American enemy that it depends on its fighting mainly in psychological war for the huge propaganda machine it has, and it also depends on the heavy air bombing. America uses these two in order to hide its soldiers' weaknesses, which are fear, cowardice, and lack of fighting spirit. These soldiers are totally convinced in their unjust cause and their unjust lying Government. They also lack a just cause to fight for its sake.

They are fighting only to serve the interest of those who have the capital, arms dealers, oil owners, including the criminal gang in the White House. Adding to that, those who keep their personal envoys, Bush the father.

We have recognised that one of the best, effective, and available means to devoid the aerial force of the crusading enemy of its content is by digging large numbers of trenches and camouflaging them in huge numbers, as I previously referred to in my past talk of the Tora Bora battle last year. Such a great battle where the faithful achieved victory over all material forces. We did that by holding firm our principles, and with God's help.

I will recall one part of such a great battle to prove how much they (American soldiers) are cowards, in one side, and how effective are these trenches in depleting them from another side.

We were 300 mujaheddin (holy fighters). We were digging 100 ditches spread over an area of one mile only. The range is one ditch for every three brothers. To avoid grave human losses during the air bombing as our centres were exposed – in the first hour of the American warfare in October 7, 2001 – to a heavy concentrated shelling, which then turned sporadic during the middle of Ramadan. Then on Ramadan 17, the shelling turned to a very heavy one, especially after the American command was certain that some of al-Qa'ida leaders are in Tora Bora, including the poor slave (talking about himself) and the holy fighter doctor Ayman el-Zawahri.

The bombing lasted 24 hours a day. No second passed without aircrafts passing over our heads day and night, as the headquarters in US Defence Ministry with all other allies had nothing to do but to bomb and destroy that tiny spot and clear it from existence. The aircrafts were spilling bombs over us, especially after it finished its main mission in Afghanistan.

The American forces were bombing us with smart bombs, cluster bombs, and bombs which invade caves. B-52 aircraft were flying every two hours over our heads and throwing each time, 20 to 30 bombs. The modified Sinmo 13 aircrafts were bombing us daily with new bombs. Despite such a heavy shelling with the horrible propaganda, the first of its kind, on such a small zone surrounded from all sides, in addition to the forces of the hypocrites which were pushed to fight us for a continual half a month, which we faced their daily waves, despite all that, they (American soldiers) turned back carrying their killed and injured soldiers. The American troops couldn't dare to invade our bases, which indicates their cowardice, fear, and the false myths they spread concerning their military capabilities.

The conclusion is an enormous defeat for the coalition of the international evil with all its forces facing such a small group of mujaheddin, 300 only in ditches in an area of one mile, in a temperature of 10 degrees below zero.

The result of that battle was 6 per cent injuries among the individuals, whom we ask God to consider as martyrs, and injuries inside the ditches were 2 per cent only, thank God.

If all the evil global powers were not capable of defeating one simple mile occupied by mujaheddin using very poor equipment, how can such evil powers triumph over the Islamic world?

This is impossible, God willing, if they hold their faith in their religion, and were determined to fight for the sake of God.

Our mujaheddin brothers in Iraq, don't worry about American lies concerning their power and their smart bombs and laser ones. Such smart bombs have no use among the mountains, trenches, plains, and forests. They need an obvious target.

As for the well-camouflaged trenches, the smart or the idiot bombs can't do anything to it. The only way is haphazard bombing which depletes the enemy's ammunition and the enemy's money. So go and dig many trenches as it was mentioned before in the holy book, "Take the earth as your shelter". Such a way will deplete all your enemy's reserves in a few months. As for their daily production, that is easy to bear, God willing.

We advise about the importance of drawing the enemy into long, close and exhausting fighting, taking advantage of camouflaged positions in plains, farms, mountains and cities. The enemy fears the most the town fights and street fights. Such fighting would cause the enemy huge losses of souls.

We stress the importance of martyrdom operations against the enemy, these attacks that have scared Americans and Israelis like never before.

We also make it clear that anyone who helps America, from the Iraqi hypocrites (opposition) or Arab rulers, whoever fights with them or offers them bases or administrative assistance, or any kind of support or help, even if only with words, to kill Muslims in Iraq, should know that he is an apostate and that (shedding) his blood and money is permissible (in Islam).

God said (in the Koran): "O believers, do not take Jews or Christians as your masters. They are loyal to each other. Those who follow them is one of them. God does not proselytise the unjust nations."

I also assure those true Muslims should act, incite and mobilise the nation in such great events, hot conditions, in order to break free from the slavery of these tyrannic and apostate regimes, which is enslaved by America, in order to establish the rule of Allah on Earth. Among regions ready for liberation are Jordan, Morocco, Nigeria, the country of the two shrines (Saudi Arabia), Yemen and Pakistan.

You know that such a crusade war concerns the Muslim nation mainly, regardless of whether the socialist party and Saddam remain or go. So Muslims in general and Iraq in particular must pull up your pant legs for jihad against this unjust campaign. You should also keep the ammunitions and weapons, as it is an obligatory mission.

It is known before that you should not fight raising the pagan banners, but you have to, as a Muslim, to have a clear faith and banner during war for the sake of God, as the Prophet said, "Whoever fights should raise the word of God".

It is not harmful in such conditions for the Muslims' interests and socialists' interests to come along with each other during the war against the crusade, without changing our faith and our declaration that socialists are infidels. Socialists' leadership had fallen down a long time ago. Socialists are infidels wherever they are, either in Baghdad or Aden.

Such war which may take place these days is similar to the war between Muslims and Romans when the interests of the Muslims came along with the interests of the Persians who both fought against the Romans. Nothing was harmful for the Companions of the Prophet.

Before I conclude, I would like to assure on the importance of encouragement (for mujaheddin) and raising their spirits and being alerted from flickering, confusion, and disinclining. The Prophet said once, "Encourage them and don't discourage".

(For three times he said) "God, who sent down the book (Koran), who ran the clouds, who defeated the parties, defeat them (enemy) and grant us the triumph over them.'

Translated transcript of Osama bin Laden's message broadcast yesterday by the Arabic Al-Jazeera network.

Has Saddam provided himself with some critical breathing space? I’ve tunnelled through motives, burrowed beyond weaknesses and faults and I remain uncomfortable. I am left with many doubts and unanswered questions. Saddam has been feeding the fires of revolt. There is a certain fear and resentment. He’s a dangerous man. He is deceitful, cruel and aggressive and bears a hatred and contempt for the US. He’s a shrewd bastard. Perhaps more than all else, is the recklessness lurking beneath Saddam, ready at any instance to burst open in a madness. The man is not only stupid but also wicked. He is nothing save his ambition.

I’ve asked myself - why is it happening, why is he pushing the US (and for that fact UN) to the limit? Has he convinced himself that the fault lies with the West? Does his honour demand revenge? What is he trying to prove? What is he contriving? I would be extremely wary - he must surely have knowledge of something closed and hidden, undiscovered and not yet interpreted, which is enabling him to remain threatening. What lies behind it - even I am not quite sure but it rings alarm bells in my mind. I believe there are inadequacies in present information as to his capabilities. Saddam may go further than we expect and suffice to say future events may lead to an appalling combination of circumstances. The risk is not hard to analyse nor quantify.

Yes, it’s a delicate issue and divisions open up every time it comes into the open. Consensus agreement in the UN regarding US proposals may not eventuate but they can’t walk away from such a threat - Saddam is too dangerous for that. There will always be those who are critical of the US and there’s nothing wrong with that. Problems of diplomacy and ethics have become sharper and compromises with standards of objectivity and niceties are now more likely to be made.

At present they are caught in a dangerous flux of tension and in the development of conflict. The American’s are keeping things underwraps vis-a-vis informational flow. Military intervention, is the goal, and there are no are limits to the means they would deploy. I believe intervention is only justified if it is directed at change for the better, in the environment, or in the structures which determine and influence that environment. One has to ask if escalating military moves prove effective? I watch the build up of tension and military hardware and remain extremely concerned as to where it will end. May be such a military build-up and maneuvering is meant to show Iraq the force they can expect to face and is a form of rational persuasion, which has nothing to do with coercion but is it strong enough to stand on its own? Saddam is being backed into a corner and there is now greater pressure on Saddam to employ measures that address growing concerns over chemical/nuclear capabilities. Whatever the eventual outcome, I understand that we cannot allow the prudential safety and stability of the region to be weakened in anyway nor can we allow him to threaten the world with mass destruction.

Certainly Saddam is a man who can lash himself into a fury, which feeds on his own rhetoric and unpredictable rages. He is nothing but a strutting peacock, a clown, a sly ruthless politician who plays one colleague off against another. He’s terrible in anger, pitiless in action, but he can also be a courteous and sometimes wily diplomat, charming even to his enemies. But above all else, his most terrifying feature is his unpredictability. He can change in a moment, from good humour to towering rage, from kindness to cruelty. All such men have a touch of madness in their make-up, an extra charge of imagination or a single mindedness, which makes them dangerous and difficult. Saddam is unendurably arrogant. He has a long memory and long knives. He’ll never forget nor forgive.