Baghdad would probably become a
bloodbath in a war that could drag on for months, an Australian
National University academic warned today.
President Saddam Hussein considered everyone of the Iraqi
capital's five million residents expendable except himself, said
Professor of Political Science Amin Saikal of ANU's Centre for Arab
and Islamic Studies.
"My feeling is that there is a good chance that Baghdad will be
turned into a bloodbath," Prof Saikal told reporters.
"The coalition forces will have no choice but to go for more
massive bombardment and that is what Saddam Hussein wants.
"He will not really hesitate to escalate the fighting inside the
city of Baghdad even if it means massive casualties for Iraq."
The Iraqi president intended to use the mounting casualties in
his propaganda strategy in a war that he could not win militarily,
but could prevent the United States from winning politically.
"I don't believe that this war is going to be short, swift and
clean as we've been promised," Prof Saikal said.
"This war is likely to last for weeks, if not months, and it's
likely to have a dramatic impact on the civilian population of
Baghdad.
"My feeling, at this point, is that we're likely to see a much
bigger humanitarian crisis looming right across Iraq."
The survival of the elite Republican Guard troops and Fedayeen
militia depended on the Hussein regime and they would fight to the
end.
The fanatical Fedayeen were trained in suicide operations as
well as guerilla warfare.
"Saddam Hussein will be relying very heavily in the 30,000
Fedayeen to carry out a number of suicide missions if necessary,"
Prof Saikal said.
Prof Saikal's grim prediction came as Baghdad's residents
increasingly armed themselves against coalition armoured divisions
that are only 60km from their city.
ANU Strategic and Defence Studies Centre director Dr Alan Dupont
said Baghdad would not be a repeat of the street by street battle
that claimed one million lives in the Russian city of Stalingrad
during World War II.
But he agreed that the coalition forces would probably have to
take the war into Baghdad.
And they could resort to indiscriminate fire power.
"I don't think they're going to go in and carpet bomb the city
and then try and take the whole city," Dr Dupont said.
"They'll have to actually selectively identify sectors of the
city that they believe are crucial to its defence, start to erode
the defences and take out the decision-makers - it's a big ask."

* Pentagon says up to 300 Iraqis may have been killed in
battle near Najaf
* British army says hearing reports of uprising in Basra and
vows to support it; but Iraqi minister denies revolt
* Warplanes attack Republican Guards defending Baghdad as
sandstorms halt some U.S. forces moving on capital; Rumsfeld
says Iraq may use chemical weapons on advancing Americans
* U.S. Marines find weapons, ammunition and over 3,000
chemical suits at Nassiriya hospital
* Two British soldiers killed by "friendly-fire" near Basra
on Monday night; two others seriously injured

EVENTS
Wednesday - Blair meets Bush in Washington
Thursday - Blair meets Kofi Annan

QUOTES
Richard Myers, chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff: "In the
big scope of things, we're on track, we're on plan. We think we
have just the right forces for what we need to do now. We remind
people that forces are still flowing to the region."
Saddam statement to Iraqi tribesmen: "The enemy has violated
your lands, and now they are violating your tribes and
families... Don't wait for our orders, just fight them."

MILITARY ACTION
BAGHDAD: U.S. forces attack Iraq's elite Republican Guards
defending approaches to Baghdad. U.S. armoured columns thrust to
the Kerbala area, 95 km (60 miles) south of the capital.
Outskirts of Baghdad pounded by heavy air strikes in an
apparent effort by U.S.-led forces to target the capital's outer
defences, a Reuters correspondent says.
CENTRAL IRAQ: U.S. Marines seize 3,000 chemical suits,
weapons from Nassiriya hospital; 170 unarmed Iraqi troops held.
SOUTHERN IRAQ: Pentagon says up to 300 Iraqis killed in
battle near Najaf
British forces say the southern Iraqi port town of Umm Qasr
is "safe and open".
British TV reporter says British troops shelling Iraqi
forces to try to help reported local uprising in Basra.
U.S. Marines resume advance towards Baghdad after fighting
through city of Nassiriya. These troops could eventually form
the eastward arm of a pincer movement on the capital, 375 km
(235 miles) to the north.
NORTHERN IRAQ: Aircraft carry out raids on targets in or
around Mosul, the heaviest on the city since raids began.

CASUALTIES / PRISONERS
U.S. military - 18 dead
UK military - 20 dead, two missing
Iraqi military - no reliable figures, up to 300 killed near
Najaf
Iraqi civilians (Iraqi estimates) - 158
Prisoners - Rumsfeld: U.S.-UK hold more than 3,500 prisoners